By Harry Welty
Despite the funeral dirge playing for the Democrats after last week’s election there is still a lot of life left in the old Party. Let’s be honest. John Kerry was not a candidate that voters could easily warm to. Considering the natural reluctance of voters to change horses in the middle of a war, Kerry’s coming within three percentage points of unseating George Bush was a great accomplishment.
The vast swath of Republican red spread
across America’s electoral map has left Democrat’s wringing their hands while the
Republicans gloat. But you can visit a website that I’ve linked to at my site:
www.snowbizz.com, which gives a much better picture of how
What you will see is that America
is not nearly the divided nation that the pundits have described. Using shades
of purple, to show the degree of partisanship in different regions, rather than
stark red or blue,
Going into this election Democrats were terrified that they would be outspent by the Republicans but the unexpected success of Internet fund raising allowed them to spend as much as the GOP. I don’t see the Democrats being grossly outspent any time soon as they have been for so many recent elections.
Furthermore, Democrats are more united today than they have been for a generation. The Green and Independence Parties are not dead but they might as well be. Until they reconstitute themselves or are replaced by a new Third Party most of their former adherents will stick with the Democrats. Republican’s may not be so lucky. Although President Bush has made much of the political “capitol” that he has “earned” by winning this election he has spent much more to keep his conservative base happy. These conservatives have high expectations for the President and Congress but they may be disappointed.
George Bush’s true believers expect him to bulldoze “strict constructionists” onto the Federal Courts. But George Bush needs 60 Senators to confirm a court nominee without a floor fight and there are only 55 Republican Senators. It’s too much to expect Democratic Senators, who feel that they’ve been bullied by the Republicans, to make any easy concessions. Will the true believers make the effort to vote Republican in the future if the President fails them on the Supreme Court?
Even the Republicans in Congress could cause the President problems. George Bush may have four years to build his legacy but one-third of the US Senate and the entire House of Representatives will face the voters in two years. If Iraq is still a mess in 2006 many Republican congressman might feel free to part ways with the President.
Things won’t be easy for George Bush
and the Republican Congress. The war in
There is one more bright spot on the Democrat horizon. Young voters favored John Kerry over Bush by a significant margin. It seems likely that many of these voters will stay with the Democrats just as many young people swelled the ranks of the GOP in the Reagan Era.
If I were a Republican (and I am though barely), I would not get too cocky. The reports of the death of the Democratic Party have been greatly exaggerated.
is a small time politician who lets it all hang out at: www.snowbizz.com